The AFC South is the home for young superstar quarterbacks. What can we expect out this division – Will Andrew Luck return to his MVP form and lead the Colts back to the playoffs? With Brock Osweiler at quarterback and JJ Watt on defense, are the Texans primed to make a deep January run? Can Blake Bortles turn around the Jaguars fate and help lead this young team to a division crown? Are the Titans behind Marriota the surprise team of 2016?
So many potential storylines, but only one can be the final feature.
4. Tennessee Titans
Key Personnel Additions: Demarco Murray, Matt Cassell, Brice McCain, Rishard Mathews, Andre Johnson, Ben Jones
Key Personnel Losses: Michael Griffin, Coty Sensabaugh
Marcus Marriota is set to begin his sophomore year in Tennessee. Titan fans should expect him to improve on his rookie campaign and only get better. He will, but do not expect this to be a playoff team. The future is bright here with a surplus of draft picks and a franchise quarterback however; expect another losing season in 2016.
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The Titans made one of the bigger trades this offseason and brought in a workhorse running back in DeMarco Murray. I like the move a lot and having Murray to reduce Marriota’s passing attempts, will only help him to limit his turnovers. Murray will be looking to bounce back from a horrendous year in Philly. He won’t put up 2014 numbers, but expect a 1,000-yard season out of him. Johnson and Mathews are nice compliments to add to the receiving core, but Delanie Walker will still be Marriota’s main target. I expect an improved, nicely balanced offense this season. If the new and improved offensive line can keep Marriota upright and healthy, this offense will surprise quite a few people.
The defensive side of the ball does not nearly have as much promise as the offense. I expect them to struggle mightily and be at the bottom of most defensive categories. They do not have the big time pass rusher or the shutdown corner. Hopefully they will use one of their early 2017 draft picks on a big time defensive prospect. They would be extremely foolish not too.
Forecast: 4-12. Marriota will make progress this year and have a few Sportscenter Top 10 Plays, but this just isn’t a good football team. On the bright side, they should have a top 3 pick in the 2017 draft.
3. Houston Texans
Key Personnel Additions: Lamar Miller, Brock Osweiler, Jeff Allen
Key Personnel Losses: Arian Foster, Brian Hoyer, Nate Washington, Jared Crick
The Brock Osweiler era begins in Houston. The Texans went out and paid big bucks for what they believe to be their quarterback of the future. The expectation is with Osweiler leading the offense and Watt on the defense, they are finally a complete football team to contend for a Super Bowl.
Osweiler will finally get his shot at being a full-time starting quarterback in the NFL. As seen last year, we know he has a big arm and can throw downfield. Hopkins is a young superstar wide receiver, but who will be that second and third receiver to relieve some of the double coverage Hopkins will most definitely see. The Texans will be relying on rookie wide receivers (Braxton Miller and Will Fuller) to fill those voids. Lamar Miller replaces Texans great Arian Foster in the backfield. Miller is younger and can make big plays out of the backfield while hopefully playing more than five games. The key to success for coach O’Brien on this side of the ball will be a healthy balance of the run and pass while getting production out of guys not named Miller and Hopkins.
JJ Watt is the best defensive player on the planet and an absolute freak of nature. He cannot be guarded with just one blocker and that will not change this season. Yes, he did just have back surgery, but do you really expect him to miss multiple games or even the season opener for that matter? The main problem here is that you play defense with eleven guys and not one. While Watt will be a force, he will need help from his teammates. Will we ever see Clowney become the dominant player he was expected to be when they drafted him no. 1 overall in 2014? For this defensive to productive, they will need to get after the quarterback. Their secondary is a major weakness going into the season that can ultimately be the reason for their struggles.
Forecast: 7-9. There just aren’t enough playmakers on either side of the ball to convince me this is a playoff team.
2. Indianapolis Colts
Key Personnel Additions: Patrick Robinson, Antonio Cromartie
Key Personnel Losses: Coby Fleener, Andre Johnson, Dwight Lowery, Jerell Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck
The Colts were one of the most disappointing teams in 2015. With Andrew Luck sidelined for most of last season, the team struggled tremendously. Going into the season with a healthy Luck (who is now the highest paid player in the league), the Colts will look to regain control of this division.
There is no denying the fact that any offense with Andrew Luck as their starting quarterback should be one of the league’s best. That is the expectation in Indy as it should be with a top-5 quarterback. I am predicting a big time bounce back season for Luck who will need to cut down his turnovers. With Ty Hilton and Moncrief on the outside, and Dewayne Allen over the middle, Luck will have his choosing of who to deliver the ball to. However, they will need Gore to find the fountain of youth because I cannot imagine a situation where he is the number one back in Week 16 if he produces as he did last year. They need to be able to run the ball to set up the lethal play action for Luck. If they can’t run the ball, defenses will just drop back in coverage and force Luck to throw 40 times a game, which is not a recipe for success.
Coach Chuck Pagano tried to improve his defense by bringing in veteran cornerbacks Patrick Robinson and Antonio Cromartie. With Vontae Davis potentially out a few games, the new corners will get their shot right away to prove their worth. The Colts are banking on Luck’s return to help improve their defense. If they can force teams to play from behind, they can unleash their pass rushers on the opposing quarterbacks. I don’t see the talent or playmakers on this defense though. Vontae Davis is still a great cornerback, but that’s where it ends for me. Robert Mathis is getting up their in age and cannot create the havoc he once did. As the old saying goes, “the best defense is a great offense.”
Forecast: 8-8. Luck will put up great numbers, but this defense will not make enough plays or be able to get the big stop when they need it.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Personnel Additions: Malik Jackson, Kelvin Beachum, Chris Ivory, Tashaun Gipson
Key Personnel Losses: Clay Harbor, Zane Beadles, Andre Branch
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Yes, you are reading this correctly. My sleeper pick for the 2016 season is your Jacksonville Jaguars. I think this is the year everything comes together and the Jags are finally able to overthrow the Texans and Colts. Gus Bradley is a solid coach who has had a young team and some bad injury luck over his first few seasons. This season they will be much improved on both sides of the ball leading to their first division title in quite some time.
Blake Bortles is a young superstar in the making. This offense is the most complete of any team in the division. With the signing of Chris Ivory, the Jags now have their big, between the tackles running back. Amongst Ivory, Denard Robinson, and Ty Yeldon, this team has a surplus of weapons at that position. Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marquis Lee might make up one of the best WR trios in the entire league. Mercedes Lewis is getting older, but still a solid pass catching tight end. I am envisioning a high-powered offense with Bortles leading the charge. The offensive line might have the biggest task of anyone in keeping Bortles healthy for a full season.
I love the Malik Jackson signing. He was truly underrated in Denver among the other defensive stars there. He will anchor the defensive line and be a true force upfront. Dante Fowler, who missed his rookie season last year, will be a pleasant addition to that line. Expect Luck, Marriota and Osweiler to have nightmares of him coming around the edge. Jalen Ramsey has star written all over it. I know rookie corners take a year or two to develop, but this kid is special and I think we will all see that come to fruition. Lastly, I’m predicting Tashaun Gipson will have a Pro Bowl season for them in the secondary.
Forecast: 10-6. I think the Jags are a team on the rise and will put the league on notice this season. This is a young, versatile team with multiple ways to beat you from either side of the ball. This could be a young, dangerous team come January.
Do you think the Jaguars will win the division? Who do you think will come out on top?
